Boker's Blog

“Glass Half Full” Perspective

LOS ANGELES TIMES BUSINESS SECTION 10/26/2011
Alejandro Lazo
“HOUSING PRICE INDEX EDGES UP”
Gauge of home values in 20 metros area climbs .2% in August, the fifth straight gain.

ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER REAL ESTATE SECTION 10/25/2011
Jonathan Lasner
“HOMEBUILDER OPTIMISM HITS FOUR-YEAR HIGH”
The west led the country with its 9-point gain to 21-the highest HMI for the region since August of 2007. (scores above 50 are considered bullish) The national index rose 4 points to 18.

“Glass Half Empty” Perspective

LOS ANGELES TIMES BUSINESS SECTION 10/30/2011
Lauren Beale
“DID TRUMP TAKE A HAIRCUT ON SALE OF HOUSE?”
His Rancho Palos Verdes estate, listed at $12 million, sold for $7.15 million

ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER REAL ESTATE SECTION 10/23/2011
Jeff Collins
“HOME SALES REVENUE AT 4-YEAR LOW FOR MONTH”
The total dollars generated from the sale of all Orange County homes fell last month to the lowest level for a September since 2007. The combined value totaled $1.19 billion. That is down $93.6 million or 7.3 percent 

ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER REAL ESTATE SECTION 10/23/2011
Jeff Collins
“SHORT SALES, LOSSES WEIGH ON PRICES”
Market insiders had envisioned that the housing market would be well on its way to recovery by now. 

Instead, it remains mired in the doldrums, with sales and prices hovering only slightly higher than when they hit bottom more than 2 years ago…

Here’s one possible reason why: On average 4 out of every 10 Orange County homes sold each month is either a Bank-owned property or a short-sale. These distressed properties – sold by the most motivated buyers act as a drag on the market, depressing prices.

HOUSINGWIRE 10/17/2011
John Prior
“REO SALES MAY NOT PEAK UNTIL 2013”
The sale of properties repossessed through foreclosure may not peak until 2013, keeping home prices from a meaningful recovery for some time, analysts estimated Monday.

Nearly half of the more than 552,000 REO properties liquidated in the first half of 2011 were held by private banks. In the years ahead, the government

In 2013, REO sales could reach 1.48 million properties, according to estimates from Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts, a 10% increase from projected amount in 2012.

"We do not expect to see anywhere near the downward pressure on home prices that we had back in 2008, since the expected percent changes in liquidation volumes are so much smaller," BofAML analysts said. "But home prices are starting from a negative point, so the implication is that home prices will continue to decline as the foreclosures transition through the pipeline."

Total REO liquidations wouldn't drop below 1 million until 2015, according to BofAML.