Boker's Blog

Glass Half Full Perspective

ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER REAL ESTATE SECTION 7/17/2011
Marilyn Kalfus
“Foreclosure starts to fall again”
According to foreclosureradar.com, for the third month in a row (April-June), notice of default filings, “which kick off the foreclosure process, were down slightly in June from May, by 1.5%, 23% from last June.” Also, cancellations of foreclosure sales went down for the second time in 3 months with a 38% decrease over a year.

ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER BUSINESS SECTION 7/13/2011
Jeff Collins and Jonathan Lansner
“UCLA: Is New Real Estate Bubble Brewing?”
Allen Matkins of the UCLA Anderson Forecast Report has come to a conclusion based on surveys of key development industries over 18 months that the recent increase of California office values “is not supported by the current rental and occupancy rates.” This increases in rates could be an “indicator of investor expectations of improving fundamentals over the next three to four years OR the beginning of a new asset bubble” But, in the Orange County twice a year survey, the markets are looking more optimistic since December and even through June.

LOS ANGELES TIMES BUSINESS SECTION 7/12/2011
Alejandro Lazo
“Southern California Housing Market Improves slightly in June”
“The Southern California housing market showed some signs of stabilizing last month with sales popping up more than the average from May to June. Sales Rose 11.6% from May, driven by first-time buyers and investors that scoured the market for bargains. Sales of so-called distressed properties –those whose owners are in some state of default—made up more than half of the Southland resale market last month. This means, Roughly one out of three homes resold was a foreclosure, while almost 1 in 5 was a short sale, in which the mortgage holder accepts a sale price that is less than the outstanding debt on the property.”

LOS ANGELES TIMES REAL ESTATE SECTION 7/10/2011
Lew Sichelman
“Investors to the Rescue of the Housing Market”
“According the a survey by the California Outfit that operates the official website of the National Association of Realtors, Real Estate Investors will outnumber traditional borrowers 3 to 1 over the next two years.”

Although loan rates are low and prices are down, there has been a recent trend of first time buyers NOT jumping into the market because of belief the prices will continue to fall.

By allowing these Real Estate Investors to take the properties off the bank’s books, and once these properties are “cleared from the decks will the housing market find its footing”

Glass Half Empty Perspective

ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER BUSINESS SECTION 7/16/2011
Jonathan Lansner
“9 Months Needed to Sell Newport Beach Homes”
In recent news, the overall Newport Beach home market had 880 residences listed for sale with 93 news deals opening in the past 30 days. “That means that it could possibly take 9.46 months to sell all inventory at current pace of news escrows in the Newport region vs. 3.96 months countywide.”

ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER BUSINESS SECTION 7/15/2011
Jonathan Lansner
“Distressed homes half of new O.C. Deals”
According to Orange County broker Steve Thomas, 42% of all listed properties in Orange County are distressed. (4,754 homes of the 11,331 listed) But, the “market time” of distressed homes sells twice as fast as non-distressed homes. Only 3% of distressed homes (123 properties) are priced above $1 million.

ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER REAL ESTATE SECTION 7/15/2011
Jonathan Lansner
“O.C. Housing Rebound was Twice as Fast in ‘90s”
“Orange County housing’s recovery runs at half the speed of the last real estate rebound in the mid- 1990s. In May of 1993 when sales first bottomed with an average of 2,784 sales per month over a 12 month period. In December 1995, home sales sluggishness pushed the trend back to its final cyclical bottom, at an average of 2,760 sales per month. This was a 47% drop from the fastest pace of the boom as compared to the 63% drop we’ve seen since the most recent housing bust.”

In the 1998 (3 years after its final bottom), Orange County home buying averaged 4,533 per month (64% off the bottom) meaning that the speed of a recovery is twice as fast compared to what we witnessed in 2008. “So, even if we don’t ‘double dip’ into another housing recession, we can anticipate a sluggish recovery process.”