Boker's Blog

“Glass Half Empty” Perspective

ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER BUSINESS SECTION 12/27/2011
Jeff Collins
“Lower home prices hit where it hurts: The wallet”

Home sellers suffered the most in 2011. “Sellers got less for their homes. That’s less cash to pay off the mortgage, pay broker commissions, escrow fees, taxes, and termite inspectors. And perhaps less (or nothing) to put in the banks or pay towards the next home.” Sales in 2011 suffered an 11% drop, grossing about $12.7 billion, which is the worst it has been since 2008.

ORAGNE COUNTY REGISTER REAL ESTATE SECTION 12/27/2011
Jonathan Lansner
“Newport Beach home sales fall 17%”

Recent data shows that sales in Newport Beach are down. “57 residences sold in Newport area vs. 69 deals closed in the matching period a year ago—a 17.4% decline over the past 12 months. For the month of December, Corona del Mar (92625) experienced a 15.8% drop in homes sold compared to a year ago, 92660 was down 23.3%, 92661 was down 33.3%, 92662 was up 300%, 92663 was up 4.5% and Newport Coast (92657) was down 26.1%.

LOS ANGELES TIMES BUSINESS SECTION 12/27/2011
Tiffany Hsu
“Home prices fall in October, Case-Shiller report says”

“Home prices in the nation’s largest cities fell in October for the second straight month, continuing to dash hopes that the sluggish housing market is headed for an upturn.” According to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Index showed that home prices dropped in 19 of 20 cities since September. “Sales in California were up 4% last month compared with the same period a year earlier, though they fell 4.2% from October.

ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER BUSINESS SECTION 12/26/11
Jeff Collins
“Commercial broker eyes choppy markets ahead”

“Eyeball 2012!” Jeff Moore, a senior managing director for the Orange County for CBRE, was interviewed on his opinions and speculation of the 2012 Real Estate Market. He recapped on 2011 explaining that “coastal markets were faring much better than inland markets” and that economic uncertainty caused a lot of business to “pull back in the last 6 months.”

His outlook for 2012 is similar to the story of 2011. “Uncertainty will continue and the markets will remain choppy. It’s clear that businesses are tiring of the ongoing uncertainty and they want to make deals.” If we want to change things back to the ‘good ole days’ (2006), It’s going to be a long road. “Instead of focusing on getting back to where we were, we need to adjust our thinking to this environment so that we start to create positive growth once again.

ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER BUSINESS SECTION 12/14/2011
Jeff Collins & Jonathan Lansner
“Median Falls to 2 1/2-Year Low”

“Orange County’s home pricing got hit with autumn’s chill, falling to the lowest level in two and a half years.” The median price of an Orange County is down by $50,000 to around $400,000. This enters the realm of the market bottom in January 2009. 62 of the 83 ZIP codes in Orange County reported declines in median selling price in November. BUT it seems that price cuts have spurred some buying.

LOS ANGELES TIMES BUSINESS SECTION 12/15/2011
Alejandro Lazo
“Scheduled Foreclosure Auctions Soar”

“Bank took steps to sell more than 26,000 California homes last month, a 63% jump.” Los Angeles times write Alejandro Lazo suggests that this is a sign that there might be a surge in discounted, bank-owned properties hitting the market this following year. BUT, it appears that many of those homes that were foreclosed on this summer, are “quickly working their way through the process.” California had the biggest month over month increase in scheduled auctions.

ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER REAL ESTATE SECTION 12/18/2011
Jeff Collins
"Lenders Tamp Short Sales”

According to Steve Thomas of ReportsOnHousing.com, “Lenders appear to be putting the brakes on so-called short sales in Orange Count, while sales of bank owned foreclosed homes have risen.” This could cause some potential problems because short sales tend to generate more cash for the lender. Foreclosed homes are up 12% compared to a year ago. Since short sales generate more cash, it makes economic sense to let people short sale their homes vs. foreclosures. It was expected that the Short Sale process would improve, but unfortunately it has not.

Steve Thomas provides an update of the Housing Markey, listing that 31% of Orange County homes for sale, are short sales. 58% of all pending sales are short sales, yet only 24% of all successfully closed sales are short sales.

ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER BUSINESS SECTION 12/20/11
Jonathan Lansner
“Trackers say home prices sliding”

According to the Real Estate Research Council, based at Cal Poly Pomona, they have tracked home values and determined they have been falling at an annual rate of 4.1%. They track home values by valuing the same homes every six months which helps rid the problematic data from computer-based indexes. In April it was calculated that Orange County homes were devaluing at a rate of 0.3% and a year ago in November, appraisers valued a rise of 4.5% annual rate.

“Glass Half Full” Perspective

ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER REAL ESTATE SECTION 1/1/2012
Jonathan Lansner
“2012: SLOW BUT STEADY”

Insiders expect housing market to continue its recovery with prices flat or up slightly. We should have a solid first quarter followed by a “watch and see” market

ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER REAL ESTATE SECTION 12/31/2011
Jonathan Lansner
“ORANGE COUNTY HOUSE PAYMENTS HAVE HIT AN 8-YEAR LOW”

Local homebuyers are getting monthly a house payment that is the same as what was available eight years ago.

ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER REAL ESTATE SECTION 12/29/2011
Jonathan Lansner
“Analyst: No doomsday scenario for economy”

According to veteran California real estate analyst G.U. Krueger the economy is actually improving and here are his reasons why. “Spin doctors distort economic outlook. Business news these days in interpreted as negatively as possible. Positive news in down played and the struggles of the middle class and heartlessness of the wealthy is exaggerated.” Also, he explains that Real GDP is up 1.8% and Consumers are back. AND “finally, real estate excesses built up during the bubble, are being absorbed.”

LOS ANGELES TIMES BUSINESS SECTION 12/29/2011
Nathaniel Popper
“Standard & Poor’s positive for 2011 once again”

“The S&P 500 index on Thursday once again reversed course and rose above the level where it was when 2011 began. The Index has bounced in and out of positive territory all week.” It was up 13.8(1.1%) points and the DOW Jones Industrial average rose 135.63 points (1.1%). “Although there are fears about the European crisis that sent markets down Wednesday, investors gave the U.S. Economy confidence as business activity grew through out November.”

ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER REAL ESTATE SECTION 12/28/2011
Jonathan Lansner and Jeff Collins
“2012 HEALTHIER AND LEANER”

"The Orange County housing market is poised to start 2012 with a much healthier and leaner listing inventory, which will ultimately prove to be a catalyst to stronger demand in the lower ranges.” Thomas also crunched some numbers to calculate market time for 8 pricing slices and determined that 5 had a faster market time vs. 2 weeks ago and 7 improved over the last year. Still, homes over a million dollars are three times harder to sell than homes under a million dollars. These properties have a market time of just over 10 months compared to 3 months it takes to sell homes listed under a million.

“California’s housing market showed some signs of luster in November with sales picking up over the same month, a year earlier.

In Southern California, sales rose 0.3% from October to November and a total of 4.2% compared to a year ago.

ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER REAL ESTATE SECTION 12/18/2011
Jonathan Lansner
“A Search for Silver Linings”

“O.C. housing prices hit a 31-month low last month while sales were barely up,” but according to O.C. Register write Jon Lansner, there may be a silver lining…”Perhaps cheap mortgage rater are helping a bit.” Sales were up 2.5% in October to November, which is typically a slow period that has shown an average decline of 7.4% since 1988.